Waves of Innovation and Predicting the Future

MULTIPLE CHOICE

     1.   What economist initially developed the understanding that capitalistic economies experience long wave cycles of forty to sixty years?

a.
Schumpeter
b.
Kondratieff
c.
Volland
d.
Chandler
e.
Simon

ANS:  B                    PTS:   1

     2.   Schumpeter argued that ____ was the basic function of the entrepreneur in capitalistic societies.

a.
Marketing
b.
Innovation
c.
Managing
d.
Making money
e.
Franchising

ANS:  B                    PTS:   1

     3.   The Railroad wave led to which type of organizational structure?

a.
Simple administrative structure
b.
Divisional structure
c.
Product structure
d.
Functional structure
e.
SBU

ANS:  D                    PTS:   1

     4.   A structure where an engineer reports to the manager of a project to build a new jet fighter and to the director of engineering would be referred to as a ____ structure.

a.
Strategic business unit (SBU)
b.
Network
c.
Functional
d.
Matrix
e.
Simple

ANS:  D                    PTS:   1

     5.   Which of these developments is not part of the motorization wave?

a.
Trucking grew as a link between small towns
b.
The emergence of the SBU structure
c.
Microprocessors and satellites allow almost instantaneous information transfers
d.
No longer did they have to follow the railroad routes or waterways for mechanized travel
e.
Aircraft manufacturing grew in importance

ANS:  C                    PTS:   1

     6.   Which wave of innovation began in the early 1900’s?

a.
Mechanization
b.
Railroad
c.
Electrification
d.
Informational
e.
Motorization

ANS:  E                    PTS:   1

     7.   When did Schumpeter believe most innovations tended to accumulate?

a.
End of downturn
b.
Beginning of a downturn
c.
End of an upturn
d.
Beginning of an upturn
e.
All periods are equal

ANS:  A                    PTS:   1

     8.   Vanston proposed different methods to identify the future over the next five to 10 years. Which of the following is not a method to identify the future over this intermediate term?

a.
Extrapolation
b.
Pattern analysis
c.
Simulation modeling
d.
Counterpunching
e.
Goal analysis

ANS:  C                    PTS:   1

     9.   The examination of cycles based on historical data is ____.

a.
Trend extrapolation
b.
Expert consensus
c.
Simulation
d.
Scenario building
e.
Decision trees

ANS:  A                    PTS:   1

   10.   MRAM will be able to ____.

a.
Attach small sensors to individuals to constantly monitor their body
b.
Allow hydrogen to be used to generate electricity in batteries
c.
Allow data to be stored even when the power is lost
d.
Make predictions on the future based on the opinions of experts
e.
Build a simulation that allows the future to be predicted

ANS:  C                    PTS:   1

SHORT ANSWER

     1.   Describe four of the six long waves of innovation and the new industrial sectors that developed at that time.

ANS: 

·
Mechanization: Iron tools, canal transportation
·
Railroadization: Steam shipping, telegraphy
·
Electrification: Construction, precision machine tools
·
Motorization: Aircraft, automobile
·
Informational: Networking, global finance, e-commerce
·
Neurotechnology: Neuroceuticals, bio-education

PTS:   1

     2.   During the first five waves of innovation what organizational structure developed at each stage? Briefly describe each structure.

ANS: 

·
Mechanization: Simple structure; CEO/owner central to all decision, works in small organizations
·
Railroadization: Functional, typical disciplines in business school including marketing, finance, accounting, production
·
Electrification: Divisionalization, individuals businesses grouped together
·
Motorization: SBU & Matrix, firms grew to be conglomerates that had a variety of divisions, those divisions organized later into SBUs. Also developed matrix where professions such as engineering reported to director of project and director of engineering.
·
Informational: Network, flat organizations with limited structure and positions that allow fast response to changes and opportunities in market

PTS:   1

     3.   Describe the methods to view the future over the immediate term – five to 10 years.

ANS: 

·
Extrapolation – future is a logical extension of past
·
Pattern analysis – patterns from past will repeat in future
·
Goal analysis – the goals of industry leaders will be realized
·
Counterpunching – random events shape future so it is hard to predict – instead respond as issues arise
·
Intuition – gather individuals with knowledge and let them discuss where they think it will go

PTS:   1

     4.   Describe the methods to forecast the short term future.

ANS: 

·
Trend extrapolation – examine historical data and extrapolate out where it will lead
·
Expert consensus – expert are polled in Delphi type approach
·
Simulation methods – computer modeling
·
Scenario building – development of worse case and best case scenario
·
Decision trees – graphical representation of decisions and where they lead to you

PTS:   1